Case Studies of Easterly Wave Disturbances over Northeast Brazil Using the Eta Model

Abstract: This research aims to analyze two easterly wave disturbance events that reached the east coast of Northeast Brazil (NEB) on 15 May 2005 and 20 June 2006. The performance of the regional Eta Model was evaluated through four sets of experiments using different horizontal resolutions (10 and 40 km) and convective parametrization schemes [Betts-Miller-Janjinc (BMJ) and Kain–Fritsch (KF)]. Through analysis of 700-hPa wind fields, all experiments, with 40- and 10-km horizontal resolutions and using the BMJ and KF schemes, were shown to well represent a trough propagating westward from about 208W to NEB, with a 5-day forecast range. When evaluating the model sensitivity to different convective parameterizations, all the experiments showed similar results and underestimated rainfall in most of the domain. The obtained results suggest the need to extend this analysis to a larger number of cases and to test other cumulus parameterizations in order to improve the rainfall forecast in eastern NEB.

Publication Available: Torres_and_Ferreira_2011.pdf (7,5 MB)